Brazil's Economic Shift Ahead of High-Stakes Presidential Vote

Between 2022 and 2025, the Brazilian economy grew by a cumulative 8.9%, a rate that outpaced regional neighbors. This expansion coincided with a sharp decline in unemployment, which dropped from over 9% in mid-2022 to 5.4% by the second quarter of 2026. The shift extended to social indicators as well, with the country officially removed from the UN’s Hunger Map in 2025 after chronic undernourishment fell below 2.5%.

Analysts attribute these gains to specific policy interventions, including minimum wage hikes, expanded maternity leave, and increased support for the Bolsa Família program. Jake Johnston, director of international research at CEPR, noted that these improvements occurred despite persistent global economic shocks and the lingering effects of the pandemic. However, the report also highlights significant headwinds, specifically high interest rates set by the central bank that have increased household debt. Furthermore, the rapid growth of online betting apps—which Lula intends to ban next month—drained an estimated $11.2 billion from Brazilian households in 2025, complicating the economic picture for many voters.