Used Vehicle Values Slide as Cox Automotive Trims Year-End Forecast

The third quarter marked a definitive pivot for the wholesale market, where depreciation accelerated beyond typical seasonal patterns. Chief economist Jeremy Robb pointed to a confluence of economic headwinds—specifically record-high diesel prices and climbing interest rates—that have dampened wholesale demand. The absence of a post-hurricane market boost further exacerbated the decline, as September became the first such month in decades without an Atlantic storm to drive replacement demand.

Market dynamics are currently bifurcated by fuel efficiency. While large SUVs and pickups face waning interest, electric vehicles have seen a surge in volume, with transaction share hitting a record 4.9% in the third quarter. Off-lease supply is also beginning to expand, with projections suggesting that EVs will account for 19% of this segment by summer 2027. Despite these shifts, Cox Automotive has nudged its total 2026 used-vehicle sales forecast upward to 38.5 million units, reflecting resilient retail activity even as wholesale prices remain under pressure.